Speaker Mike Johnson is rising. And is about to beat McCarthy’s days on the job

WASHINGTON – Perched in the presidential box alongside a revolving cast of dignitaries, House Speaker Mike Johnson had a VIP view at the Republican National Convention.

On his immediate right for Wednesday night's festivities: Donald Trump and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. On his left: An unfamiliar woman whom the Louisiana Republican congressman presumed was a deep-pocketed financier. Then he learned otherwise.

"I introduce myself to say hello and she said 'Hi,'" Johnson recalled a day later during an event hosted by CNN and POLITICO. "I said 'Where are you from?' I thought I was supposed to know her. And she said, 'I'm JD Vance's mom.'"

Johnson can relate to not knowing who Beverly Vance was.

Less than nine months ago, Johnson was a little-known Republican lawmaker representing his state's northwestern corner whose biggest claim to fame was advancing a long-shot legal challenge on Trump's behalf questioning the results of the 2020 White House election. Now, he's the most powerful elected Republican in the U.S. government and second in the line of succession to the presidency.

That means the 52-year-old attorney was in high demand at the RNC with a packed schedule over its four days ranging from speaking slots, charting the GOP's 2025 agenda to wining and dining donors. Though the devout Southern Baptist does not drink, his beverage of choice is often Diet Coke.

The convention took a much more jubilant tone with Trump riding a newfound wave of momentum in his bid to win a second term and congressional Republicans expressing newfound optimism that voters in November will pick them to be the ones dominating all the levers of power in Washington, D.C., come 2025.

It's a scenario that would mean Johnson has a good shot at serving another term as speaker, a remarkable turn of events for someone who has already survived an attempt to oust him earlier this year and now draws the confidence of a vast majority of his members.

Come Sunday, Johnson will have officially lasted longer than his predecessor who was forcefully removed from his post last fall.

In Milwaukee, Johnson hosted a Louisiana state GOP event and spoke to state delegations including Pennsylvania and North Carolina. He made remarks at a briefing for the Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest House GOP super PAC aimed at helping him retain his gavel for the next Congress. He also convened a welcome brunch for the National Republican Congressional Committee and met with the Republican Jewish Coalition.

By virtue of being House speaker, Johnson also formally presided over Vance's nomination as the 2024 GOP vice presidential candidate and for Trump as the party's presidential nominee for a third consecutive election cycle. On the night of Johnson's and his fellow House GOP’s leaders speeches, the speaker walked out into raucous applause from the crowd.

“To be here and having the key position in the party is a normal process for the speaker of the House if you’re a Republican, so it’s not unusual,” Erik Skrmetta, 66, and a delegate from Johnson’s home state of Louisiana, told USA TODAY. “But it’s hard to over-express how smart Mike is and well thought of he is, not just by the Louisiana delegation, but across the board.”

Johnson has had a whirlwind career since assuming the speakership last October. His party has at times been deeply divided, most notably from the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus that's known for throwing a wrench into the GOP’s governing agenda.

Not only that, Johnson beat back an effort from conservative firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., to oust him from the speakership. Greene’s campaign to remove him from his post lasted weeks and fueled constant speculation and doubts Johnson would not be able to survive. 

“It’s such a delight every day, isn’t it?” Johnson told the Pennsylvania delegation attending the RNC over breakfast on Tuesday. “As we like to say, I spend half my days as speaker of the House and the other half as a mental health counselor.”

But survive he did. Former Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s speakership lasted 269 days until the California Republican lost his job. Johnson is set to beat that number on Sunday when he hits the 270-day mark of his speakership, after House Republicans unanimously elected him as their leader last October following four weeks of infighting where half of a vital branch of the U.S. government sat frozen. 

Johnson's tenure could extend into the next year as well. The Republican convention was largely a coronation and celebration of sorts as the GOP has been buoyed by Democratic infighting and polling in critical battleground swing states and with a growing chorus of party leaders nudging 81-year-old President Joe Biden to end his bid for a second term due to concerns about his mental acuity and health. 

In 2024, Republicans have long seen the White House as a coin flip somewhat tilted towards Trump. A map full of critical Senate races in states where Trump is the heavy favorite means it's the GOP’s election to lose this cycle. But Republicans in private have fretted that keeping the House in their hands is almost untenable, especially given their bitter intra-party disputes like the one that led to McCarthy's ouster.

But Biden’s shaky debate performance has instilled a new sense of confidence in Republicans' hopes of retaining their majority or even expanding it. Democrats are saying as much to their incumbent president in the hopes he'll make room at the top of the 2024 ticket for Vice President Kamala Harris.

Last Saturday's attempted assassination of Trump left a somber note for the convention, but has also heavily energized the GOP base. In turn, Johnson also has good prospects of staying on as speaker. After he survived an ultraconservative insurgency earlier this year, those conservative lawmakers claimed he would not be the House GOP’s leader in the next Congress.

“I think we’ll pick up a number of seats,” Rep. Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee tasked with electing House Republicans, said at the same CNN and POLITICO event. “And I think we’ll pick up enough that (Johnson) will be rewarded with another term of speaker.” 

Compared to the scene on Capitol Hill where Johnson’s agenda is often foiled (ultraconservatives recently tanked a spending bill for the legislative branch), Milwaukee’s theme of unity was a breath of fresh air for House Republicans.

“Boy, that’s so sweet to hear, right? Our party is unified right now,” Johnson said at a prayer breakfast on Thursday hosted by the Faith and Freedom Coalition. “It’s been great. I was four inches taller when I became speaker of the House, by the way. They beat me down mercilessly but that’s okay.”