At RNC, foreign ambassadors prepare to deal with NATO-skeptic Trump administration

MILWAUKEE – Amid the bedazzled red, white and blue cowboy hats and Trump-themed socks, there were a handful of less enthusiastic attendees wandering the Republican National Convention this week.

They are the foreign ambassadors bracing for the real possibility of a second term for former President Donald Trump, who tested longstanding diplomatic and trade relationships during his four years in the White House. 

After a stable period of attempted fence-mending by President Joe Biden, a Trump restoration could bring massive changes. 

Trump has been openly skeptical of NATO and has repeatedly toyed with the idea of withdrawing the U.S. from the military alliance, which has grown in strength under Biden in the face of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

He has proposed a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the country.

And his new vice presidential pick, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, has been one of Congress’ most vocal skeptics of continued U.S. aid for Ukraine, which European nations agree is crucial to deterring future attacks from Russia on the rest of the continent. On one night of the convention, attendees were given signs proclaiming "Trump will end the Ukraine war."

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“It matters what happens here,” said the ambassador to one eastern European country, who spoke with USA TODAY on condition of anonymity in order to speak freely. “In general, when the U.S. is not in leadership in a strong position, for us, that matters.”

Several ambassadors who spoke with USA TODAY said they visited the RNC to connect with conservative policymakers and to better understand what a second Trump administration would bring. They also plan to attend the Democratic National Convention in August.

“It’s difficult to sort out what is the future government approach and what is the think tank approach,” said another eastern European ambassador of Trump’s plans, in an apparent reference to recent confusion over Project 2025, a controversial Heritage Foundation-led agenda for a second Trump term that the former president has recently distanced himself from.

Trump has long argued that European countries should pay more into the defense fund for the NATO alliance. Both Trump and Vance have argued that the United States should send less aid to foreign allies and focus more on domestic policies.

More:After Trump chooses Vance for VP, glee and caution as Europe reacts

Vance told the Munich Security Conference in February that he doesn’t think the U.S. should pull out of NATO, but that it should “pivot” its focus to East Asia. During his competitive Senate primary race in 2022, he was the only candidate to oppose a no-fly zone in Ukraine that was supported by NATO.

Trump has also taken a protectionist stance on trade and manufacturing – one of the issues that first swept him into office in 2016, shortly after which he began renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was scrapped in favor of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

“We will not let countries come in, take our jobs, and plunder our nation,” Trump said during his closing speech at the RNC Thursday night. “The only way they will sell their product in America is build it in America.”

Privately, ambassadors expressed resolution to prepare for change and anxiety over what may come. 

One ambassador said they would expect the relationship between the U.S. and their country to become “more transactional” under a Trump administration.

A third European ambassador told USA TODAY their country’s economic relationship with the U.S. is “very strong,” and “we do hope it will not become more difficult to make business with the U.S.”

Publicly, ambassadors attending the convention did not express outright wariness to a second Trump administration – but made clear they’d have a fight on their hands if some promised policies are pursued.

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Canadian Ambassador Kirsten Hillman said during a Politico/CNN panel on the RNC grounds that she was first sent to the U.S. to take part in the negotiation that replaced NAFTA with the USMCA, which gives the two countries a nearly completely tariff-free trade relationship. 

If Trump follows through on passing 10% tariffs on all imports, she said, “I think we’ll have an important conversation to have because we just negotiated something quite different.”

She noted the U.S. and Canada have the largest bilateral trade relationship in the world – amounting to around $2.7 billion per day.

“I think we will be eager to point out how challenging that could be for U.S. consumers,” she said. “Not only because it will make the products that they seek to buy more expensive, but inevitably, our government will be under enormous pressure to reciprocate.”

Asked what a Trump-Vance administration would mean for America’s closest ally if elected, United Kingdom Ambassador Karen Pierce began by noting “that’s a big if.”

“It depends on who’s the next administration obviously,” she said. “People say things in opposition, but when they’re actually in power, then they have the weight of that responsibility.”

German Ambassador Andreas Michaelis, speaking to Politico/CNN, echoed the resolution expressed by multiple ambassadors. 

“We will deal with those responsible in the U.S., in Washington,” he said. “Certainly there will be different priorities most likely. There will be frustrations. But we’ll take it on.”